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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.
Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
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“The current landscape pays lip service to responsible gaming, and you’d hardly see effective player protection architecture other than messages asking players to gamble responsibly and surface-level awareness campaigns.
“Having a minimum standard in player protection is one of the aims of the network. Our view is that responsible gaming regulations need to move beyond being paper-based requirements to actual standards that are upheld as a regulatory requirement.”
The ARGN’s launch follows the inaugural Africa Safer Gambling Week earlier this month.
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“Not making the product available across all game suppliers and all product verticals would be a massive missed opportunity,” Wilson explains. “Wherever you can have a player placing a bet, give them the opportunity to win on the jackpot engine because it is such a sticky product.”
A branded jackpot also gives operators a visible identity across content they did not create, turning third-party games into something closer to their own ecosystem.
“There’s this huge, proven revenue opportunity, but it’s also about continuity of the brand that exists across the whole platform and the whole offering,” Wilson adds.